Alumni

Orratai Rhucharoenpornpanich

Country: Thailand
Thesis Title: THE IMPACT OF HIV/AIDSEPIDEMIC ON THE THAIPOPULATION : A FOCUSON THE DEMOGRAPHICIMPACT AND ON CHILDREN.
Advisor: APHICHAT CHAMRATRITHIRONG
Abstract:

The long standing AIDS epidemic in Thailand has inevitably led to adult and child mortality. Encouraged by the ready availability of both epidemiological and behavioral data, a number of modeling efforts on the impact of AIDS have been undertaken in Thailand since 1990. However, as better models are developed and as the course of the epidemic changes, in part due to changes in behavior and in part due to advance in therapy, and particularly recent development in drug interventions to reduce mother to child HIV transmission, there remains an ongoing need to provide new estimates and projections of the impact of AIDS on the Thai population. In this study, demographic parameters measuring population dynamics-- population size and annual growth rate-- and mortality indicators over the period 1985- 2010 are projected. These projections are undertaken through a comparison of scenarios in the absence and the presence of AIDS. The impact of AIDS on children is also examined. The number of HIV positive births, child AIDS deaths and number of AIDS orphans are shown in these projections. These are displayed through a comparison of scenarios both with and without Anti-Retroviral (ARV) intervention. The methods used for this study are to estimate and project HIV prevalence for adults and to use the models to project the magnitude and mortality impact of AIDS on the Thai population. The source of HIV information used for prevalence estimates and for projection is derived from antenatal clinics of the sentinel serosurveillance system that tests HIV infection among pregnant women. The models used for the projection are demographic projection (Dem Proj) and the AIDS Impact Model (AIM). The projections suggest that, even with lower levels of HIV prevalence, the impact of AIDS will reduce by 1-2 percent the population size that would have occurred in the absence of AIDS. The cumulative impact of mortality will have significant effects on some demographic parameters, such as the crude death rate, age specific mortality rate at ages 20-39, under 5 mortality rate and life expectancy. Since AIDS will kill adults in their prime reproductive ages, many of whom are at the peak of their fertility and economic productivity, AIDS has an inevitable mortality impact on children. The social, economic, and emotional health cost of this impact will also be enormous. AIDS will result in more than 4,000 HIV positive births and 3,000 child AIDS deaths per year. If an ARV intervention is fully implemented in the year 2000 this number will decline by one–half. Nearly 200,000 AIDS orphans are projected by the end of the projection period. A major policy implication of the results is that the fight against AIDS should get the attention of greater and continuous efforts by authorities at all levels. The best approach to address the impact of AIDS remains primary prevention. To prevent young adults from HIV infection is also to save children's lives from AIDS. Small decreases in prevalence level will reduce the AIDS impact both in adult and child mortality

Alumni

Doctor of Philosophy in Demography (International Program)
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